August of 2018 marked the onset of the African swine fever virus (ASF) outbreak in China that would inevitably result in the loss of 25% of the global pig population. Before August of 2018, China was the world's number-one producer and consumer of pork, consuming more than 50 million tons annually. Just one year after the onset of the ASF outbreak, China reported losses exceeding $140 billion. Currently, the Americas and Australia are the only swine production regions free of the virus — meaning that over 75% of the world's pork is now being produced in ASF outbreak zones.

ASF is a double-stranded DNA arbovirus that causes hemorrhagic disease in domestic and wild pigs. ASF is not infectious to humans, but the most virulent strains have a 100% mortality rate in pigs within 6–9 days of infection. At this time, there is no vaccine, treatment or cure for ASF. ASF is not airborne, but it can be spread by all porcine bodily fluids and remains viable and infectious on surfaces from 10 days to several months, depending on the environmental conditions and the level of contamination. To kill the virus, meat must be cooked at a minimum temperature of 70oC for at least 30 minutes. Viral disinfection is achieved by using very low- or very high-pH chemicals.

The most common ways for ASF to be transmitted are through contaminated vehicles and farm equipment, the ingestion of contaminated food and water, direct contact with infected pigs (including wild boar), being bitten by blood-sucking insects carrying the virus, and from contact with a human who is unknowingly carrying the virus on their clothes or skin. In Asia, the biggest ASF transmission risk was — and still is — the lack of biosecurity throughout the value chain. Meanwhile, in places with more advanced biosecurity, like Europe, the greatest risk is the uncontrolled wild boar population.

ASF incubates within pigs from 4 to 19 days, and the infected pigs become contagious 2 days before showing symptoms. Once infected, pigs can stay contagious for over 70 days. During the early stages of the outbreak, many farmers did not know that the infected pigs who survived were still infectious, which led to further infection of the herd. Now, most large-scale farming operations understand that once one pig is diagnosed with ASF, the entire herd must be quarantined and culled.

Controlling the virus was also difficult due to pig plasma being a primary protein source and swill feeding being commonplace. Once both practices were banned, farmers began to focus more on their biosecurity measures and on their personnel. Since people cannot contract ASF, they had no way of knowing if they were carrying the virus on their hands or clothing. Infected meat was accidentally sold for human consumption, and farm personnel would consume pork for lunch or dinner and mistakenly carry the virus from their plate to the herd. Farmers immediately increased their biosecurity measures by prohibiting visitors, installing additional truck-washing stations, transitioning personnel to vegetarian diets, adding viral mitigants to their feed and strictly monitoring the supply chain for any opportunities for cross-contamination.

Because of ASF, in less than one year, the Asian herd was cut in half and pork prices more than doubled. In some cities, tickets were being given to families to ration meat. Several thousand tons of pork meat were released from government-held cold storage in an attempt to drive down consumer prices. Piglet prices increased nearly 140% over the previous year and are still rising. Chinese pork consumption decreased 30% due to unreasonably high prices. The Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3%. At this time, it is suspected that the herd is 40% smaller than the roughly 440 million head reported in 2018.

Amidst the crisis, however, ASF created opportunities for bilateral trade agreements between foreign countries and increased stock values for local swine producers.

• In China, 2019 hog margins reached $500 per hog, and 2020 margins have been holding steady at $280.

• Pig prices are so inflated that Guangxi Yangxiang, one of the leading innovative feed enterprises in

Guangxi Province, has been trying to recruit farmers by offering them luxury cars. Their advertisements

include statements like, "Raise 10 sows and drive a BMW next year."

• Muyuan Foods Co Ltd, Wens Foodstuff Group Co Ltd, and New Hope Liuhe have all reported profits that

are more than double the numbers seen the previous year. Muyuan Foods Company's share price has

increased more than 200%.

• Australian beef exports to China were up 72% by September of 2019.

• Brazil has experienced increased exports of chicken, pork and soya.

• Denmark has exported $2.9 million worth of breeding pigs to China.

• Thailand exported 33,500 tons of chicken to China by July of 2019, up from 4,100 tons the previous year.

The re-population of the Chinese herd has seen many setbacks. Initially, 80–90% of farmers were experiencing ASF reinfection. In order to restock, farmers have been transitioning sows from meat to breeding. This has resulted in decreased piglets per litter and diluted genetics, further prolonging the repopulation efforts. Additionally, researchers have found that feed ingredients, such as soybean meal and choline, as well as complete feed, can carry infectious levels of ASF for longer than 30 days. With imperfect genetics and a potentially compromised supply chain, superior animal nutrition and viral feed mitigants have never been more important.

Since the discovery of COVID-19 in China, pork sales have held steady, but proteins more commonly consumed in restaurants — such as beef and seafood — have experienced decreased demand. Alcohol sales have decreased by more than 50%, and sauces/condiments are down 45%. Governments trying to contain the virus have brought non-essential industries to a halt. As a result, disruptions with staffing, logistics and transportation are becoming the biggest obstacles for the agri-food industry. As the population of China learned, having less people physically report to work helped to slow the spread of COVID-19, but it also created bottlenecks at major ports, and confusion over what was defined as "essential" made it difficult for some farmers to receive all the necessary supplies. This made having inventory management and delivery systems a competitive advantage.

As COVID-19 spreads, essential industries, such as food, healthcare, petrol and logistics, will have to implement procedures that ensure personnel safety while meeting operational demands. For agri-food companies who have already been dealing with ASF, the biosecurity transition to COVID-19 will be manageable; for others, it may cause financial strain. Taking the temperatures of staff members before they enter the workplace will become more commonplace, and open public restrooms will become more difficult to find.

In a world where ASF and COVID-19 exist, sustainability has transitioned from a buzzword into an impactful objective. We cannot sugarcoat the grim statistics that have been blanketing the news — but with every crisis, there is opportunity, and with every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. ASF and COVID-19 will push our industry to reassess farming as we know it. Industries may not emerge on the other side of these events exactly as they went in, but everything will continue to move forward. Innovation will make industries stronger, and consumers will get what they demand. Biosecurity will improve throughout the value chain, and rightly so. We are not doomed; we will get through this. When we work together toward a common goal, there is a pathway for a planet of plenty.

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Article made possible through the contribution of Amy Bell-Elmohammed and Alltech

Impacts of African swine fever on the feed industry