Brazil has reached a historic milestone in soybean exports in 2026.

With 51.6 million tonnes shipped through May, the country has already surpassed the 51.5 million tonnes exported during the same period in 2025, even before the month officially ended, according to Geraldo Isoldi, consultant at Terra Investimentos.

Soybean exports could close the month near a new all-time record. By the third week of May, shipments had already reached 11.38 million tonnes, according to data from Brazil's Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex).

Maintaining the daily average of 759,000 tonnes over the remaining business days of the month, exports are projected to reach 15.18 million tonnes, according to Terra Investimentos. While slightly below the forecast released by the National Association of Cereal Exporters (ANEC) and below the 15.658 million tonnes exported in May 2023, the difference is considered small enough to keep the possibility of a new monthly record open.

In its April report, Brazil's National Supply Company (Conab) raised its 2026 soybean export forecast from 115.5 million tonnes to 116 million tonnes. The previous estimate already represented a record, and the revision further reinforces expectations of sector growth.

Market projections are even more optimistic. Terra Investimentos estimates exports could reach 117 million tonnes, exceeding the official forecast. If confirmed, the result would represent a significant increase from the 108 million tonnes exported last year and establish a new historical record for the sector.

Conab estimates that Brazil's soybean stocks will reach 10.3 million tonnes in 2026, supported by increased production and a record harvest. The figure points to abundant domestic supply and could represent one of the highest stock levels ever recorded for the commodity in the country.

Recent projections indicate a soybean crop exceeding 179 million tonnes, further consolidating Brazil's position as the world's leading soybean producer. The increased availability of soybeans reflects the continued expansion of national production and strengthens expectations that Brazil will maintain its leadership in the global soybean trade.

The market is also closely watching Chinese demand, which continues to play a key role in Brazilian soybean exports. Contrary to expectations of a slowdown, China has maintained a steady pace of large-volume purchases, supporting international trade flows, according to Rafael Silveira, analyst and consultant at Safras & Mercado.

Strong Chinese demand has accelerated Brazil's export schedule throughout April and May and continues to support positive expectations for the coming months.

Global soybean markets are also monitoring China's purchasing strategy as the new US soybean crop enters the market. Traditionally, China increases purchases from the United States during this period, which could alter global trade dynamics and affect demand for Brazilian soybeans in the second half of the year.

Any shift in buying patterns could influence not only trade volumes but also logistics, affecting shipment flows and port operations. In the short term, however, the outlook remains favorable for Brazil, supported by the competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans, which currently offer attractive prices and lower premiums for importers.

Market participants are also monitoring potential trade agreements involving China, which could lead the country to increase soybean purchases from the US to around 25 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season. If that occurs, demand for Brazilian soybeans could moderate.

The potential impact is significant given China's reliance on Brazilian supply. Last year alone, China imported approximately 85.4 million tonnes of soybeans from Brazil. As a result, market participants continue to adjust their projections and expectations in response to developments in global demand and the redistribution of trade flows among major exporting countries.

- CNN Brasil

Brazil achieves record soybean exports this year

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